The SCOTUS forecasting contest

Now that the second session of oral arguments for the 2026-27 term is about to begin, we figured it would be a good time to check in on SCOTUSblog’s inaugural Supreme Court forecasting contest.

To remind you, in collaboration with Good Judgment Inc., this gives SCOTUS obsessives (and non-obsessives) a way to formally predict how the court will decide the most important cases of the term, and to test that collective judgment against the glory and horror that is AI (or, apparently, Super Intelligence). In July, we will provide the names on SCOTUSblog of the three most accurate forecasters, reward them with swag, and compare their predictions to those of the machines.

Here are the three forecasted cases argued in the October session:

• Suncor Energy Inc. v. County Commissioners of Boulder County (argued on Oct. 5): Will the Supreme Court rule that Boulder’s state-law tort claims in the case are preempted by federal law?
• Johnson v. United States Congress (argued on Oct. 5): Will the Supreme Court rule that the district court has jurisdiction to hear any of the claims regarding disability benefits brought by Floyd Johnson?
• Beaird v. United States (argued on Oct. 13): Will the Supreme Court rule that Stinson v. United States still correctly states the rule for deference that courts must give the Commentary of the Federal Sentencing Guidelines?

As for the present argument session, you can provide forecasts for the following cases:

• St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy (to be argued on Nov. 3): Will the Supreme Court rule that the Universal Preschool Program is subject to strict scrutiny as to any parishes’ free exercise clause claims against the state?
• Nielsen v. Watanabe (to be argued on Nov. 9): Will the Supreme Court rule that the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit erred in recognizing Watanabe’s cause of action under Bivens v. Six Unknown Named Agents of the Federal Bureau of Narcotics?

To make a forecast for these cases, as well as several others yet to be argued, simply visit https://www.gjopen.com/users/sign_up. You only need a working email address, Google account, or Facebook account to do so. Once you sign up, you will be automatically directed to the SCOTUSblog 2026-27 Supreme Court Forecasting Challenge page, where you will be asked to choose the likelihood that each case will be decided one way or the other (and will be able to update your forecast until the case is decided).

As further significant cases are granted, we will add them to the page.